THREE MONTHS OUT, LOOKING GOOD FOR GOP – AT 7:59 A.M. ET:  Three months before the most important midterm elections of our era, the prospects for the Republicans in the House are looking good, according to Michael Barone, one of our best political analysts.  From the Washington Examiner:

...take a look at the generic ballot question -- which party's candidate will you vote for in elections to the House? The current realclearpolitics.com average shows Republicans ahead by 45 to 41 percent. Ten of this month's 15 opinion polls asking the question had Republicans ahead; Democrats led in four (twice by 1 percent), and one poll showed a tie.

Keep in mind that the generic ballot question historically has tended to underpredict Republican performance in off-year elections. Gallup has been asking the question since 1950 and has shown Republicans leading only in two cycles, 1994 and 2002, and then by less than the 7 and 5 points by which they won the popular vote for the House in those years.

So the Republicans' current lead in the generic ballot question suggests they may be on the brink of doing better than in any election since 1946, when they won a 245-188 margin in the House -- larger than any they've held ever since.

And...

In 1994, I wrote an article in U.S. News & World Report arguing that there was a serious chance that Republicans could capture the 40 seats that they needed then, as now, for a majority in the House. It was the first mainstream media piece suggesting that, and it appeared on newsstands on July 11.

I cited as evidence five polls showing incumbent Democratic congressmen trailing Republican challengers. None of those Democrats had scandal problems; all five lost in November.
Today a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the past seven weeks...

...These metrics -- the generic ballot results and polls in individual districts -- suggest that House Democrats are headed toward historic losses.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  But Republicans have yet to present their platform, which had better be good.  And don't ignore the possibility of an October surprise, especially in foreign policy.

Nor can we ignore the relentless Obama-booming by the mainstream media.  While I don't stay at night worrying about it, I wonder how many "news" organizations are preparing grim-faced special reports on some dark Republican secret or the prospects for the "average" American if the GOP seizes control. 

July 28, 2010